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MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

Posted Sep 22nd, 8:52 pm
Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead in the Pacific Ocean. This prompted a risk-off move early in the overnight session (stocks and bond yields lower). After that, bonds seemed...

MBS RECAP: After More Nuclear Headlines, Bonds Punt

Posted Sep 22nd, 8:52 pm
Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead in the Pacific Ocean. This prompted a risk-off move early in the overnight session (stocks and bond yields lower). After that, bonds seemed...

Rates Show Resilience But Not Without Help

Posted Sep 22nd, 8:27 pm
Mortgage rates held their ground yesterday. That was a refreshing development given the abrupt move higher over the past 2 weeks and a relatively threatening reaction to Wednesday's Federal Reserve events. Now again today, rates have managed to hold their ground. In some cases, lenders improved by...

Rates Rise but Refi Share Unchanged

Posted Sep 22nd, 4:26 pm
Refinancing accounted for 35 percent of all mortgages originated in August, unchanged from July, but down from 47 percent at the beginning of the year. Ellie Mae's says, in its Origination Insight Report for the month, that refinancing is holding up especially well among conventional loans where the...

UI Praises HARP Benefits, Lessons

Posted Sep 22nd, 3:14 pm
Sometimes government gets it right. The Urban Institute (UI) clearly thinks that the Home Affordable Refinance Program, at least in its second iteration , was one of those times. The history of HARP, as the program is known, is the subject of a post in UI's Urban Wire blog credited to four UI...

Agency Conforming Changes; Market Exec on Cost to Originate

Posted Sep 22nd, 1:37 pm
Welcome to the autumn equinox. How about this? There have been no public CFPB enforcement actions or consent orders dealing with QM, ATR, or TRID. Zero, zip. Has the CFPB realized that companies are genuinely trying to adhere, and that having 100% TRID error-free originations is impossible? Or that...

Home Equity Increases, Average Gains Vary Wildly

Posted Sep 22nd, 1:18 pm
Rising home prices continue to fuel fast growth in household equity. CoreLogic said on Thursday that owners of mortgaged properties in the U.S. (roughly 63 percent of all homes) gained an aggregate of $766 billion in additional equity between the second quarter of 2016 and the same quarter this...

MBS Day Ahead: Despite North Korea Headlines, Same Showdown on Tap

Posted Sep 22nd, 12:59 pm
With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket headline or two. Today begins with just such headlines . As has been the case for several market moving headlines of late, today's center on North...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Hold Ground, Complicating The Outlook

Posted Sep 21st, 8:40 pm
In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "course corrections" from the Fed resulting in a shift in the prevailing momentum. Arguably, yesterday's Fed announcement was a course...

Mortgage Rates Find Some Support

Posted Sep 21st, 7:44 pm
Mortgage rates have been higher almost exclusively for the past 2 weeks. Yesterday was no exception as the Federal Reserve released a rate hike forecast that was slightly more optimistic than markets were expecting. By yesterday afternoon, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at its highest...

3 Trends That Will Drive The Mortgage Market in 2018 – Freddie Mac

Posted Sep 21st, 4:36 pm
Hard to believe it's already that time again, but Freddie Mac's Economic and Housing Research Group are out with their forecast for 2018. The headline is that they expect the economic environment to remain favorable for housing and mortgage markets, with moderate economic growth of about two...

Pacific Division Prices Down in FHFA Report

Posted Sep 21st, 1:48 pm
Home prices increased by 0.2 percent from June to July according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported May to June gain was unchanged at 0.1 percent. Analysts expected a more aggressive increase . Those polled by Econoday had reported a...

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Sell-Off’s Grinch-Like Heart Growing 2.28 Sizes

Posted Sep 21st, 1:43 pm
Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had when you saw the Grinch finally on the cusp of doing something redeeming? Fans of low rates might be having a similar feeling today. The recent...

False Claims Act Penalty; Lender’s Disaster News; Fed Does the Expected

Posted Sep 21st, 1:25 pm
I am currently in South Carolina, and as it turns out, no other U.S. region is more populous than the South Atlantic United States (Washington, D.C., Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida). I realize that this commentary is focused on...

MBS RECAP: Ugly September Gets Uglier After The Fed

Posted Sep 20th, 9:28 pm
Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception of the balance sheet normalization plan. They referenced temporary impacts from hurricanes. They didn't get overly-optimistic about the...

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month After Fed

Posted Sep 20th, 9:12 pm
Mortgage rates rose today following the announcement and--more importantly--the Fed's updated economic projections . The Fed holds 8 meetings a year. They release an official policy announcement after all of those. Four of the meetings are "special" and are followed not only by a policy...

Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

Posted Sep 20th, 6:04 pm
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JuneJuly indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average,...

Existing Home Sales Distorted by Harvey

Posted Sep 20th, 2:53 pm
August was yet another disappointing month for existing home sales. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says those sales were down for the fourth time in five months, retreating 1.7 percent from July's estimate of 5.44 million to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units....

Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) Info; FINRA; Fed Announcement

Posted Sep 20th, 2:27 pm
UCD Information As announced in September 2016,the Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) mandate remains September 25, 2017Lenders who can deliver the UCD are expected to adhere to the mandate and submit a successful UCD XML file for all loans being delivered on or after September 25 , 2017 (based on Note...

Mortgage Apps Tanked Last Week. Was it Rates’ Fault?

Posted Sep 20th, 12:52 pm
Overall mortgage application activity diminished significantly during the week ended September 15, but refinancing continued to hold its own, representing more than half of the mortgage applications received. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume...