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MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

Posted Jun 21st, 8:50 pm
With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historical trends. Namely, the summer months tend to see narrower ranges and flatter trajectories compared to other times of the year. This usually starts in...

Mortgage Rates are Barely Budging (And That’s Great!)

Posted Jun 21st, 7:11 pm
Mortgage rates have been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortgage rates are determined by the bond market where trading levels move constantly throughout the day, it can be useful to consider what's been happening...

Existing Sales Rise, Prices Peak, Time-to-Sell at New Low

Posted Jun 21st, 2:22 pm
Existing home sales weren't expected to strengthen in May, in fact analysts were looking for a slight decline. Sales however did manage to recover from a significant April loss while inventories increased slightly and the median sales price rose to a new high. The National Association of...

Borrower Satisfaction Survey; CRT’s Help in Secondary; Credit Risk Increasing in Primary Market

Posted Jun 21st, 1:30 pm
Welcome to the first day of summer. Hey, I don’t where you’re going to be exactly two months from now, but on August 21, besides marking the anniversary of Hawai’i’s statehood, there are various places to watch the total eclipse . Here's a cartoon simulator - enter a town or...

Refis Take Another Step Toward 50% of All Mortgage Apps

Posted Jun 21st, 1:21 pm
The volume of applications for refinancing expanded for the third consecutive time during the week ended June 16. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the increase offset another down week for purchase mortgages, giving overall mortgage volume a slight uptick from a week earlier. The MBA's...

MBS Day Ahead: Oil’s Impact on Markets: a Slippery Slope

Posted Jun 21st, 1:17 pm
Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial media. Slippery puns aside, don't fall for it! Sure, oil prices matter. And they can even have varying levels of impact on stocks and...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Yesterday’s Weakness Without Much Help

Posted Jun 20th, 8:54 pm
Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers got some attention, but the best we can do here is to pick out only the comments that reinforce the rally and tell you about those. And that...

Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month Lows

Posted Jun 20th, 7:44 pm
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here nor there for the mortgage world as most lenders didn't adjust rates much higher yesterday (despite bond weakness). Thus, they didn't have much to do...

Rise in Purchase Mortgages Boosts Credit Risk

Posted Jun 20th, 2:20 pm
New home purchase mortgages became a little riskier in the first quarter of 2017 per CoreLogic. The company said its Housing Credit Index (HCI), which measures trends in six mortgage credit risk attributes, edged up to 105.6, a 3.6-point increase from the same quarter in 2016. This puts the HCI at...

MBA Objects to FHFA Non-Bank Servicer Proposal

Posted Jun 20th, 1:43 pm
Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David H. Stevens, has released a statement objecting to one of the three recommendations made this week by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) in its annual report to Congress. FHFA said it intends to ask Congress to allow it to add certain...

Hedging Economic Bets

Posted Jun 20th, 1:42 pm
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Team hedged a few bets in its June economic summary. It laid out some wild cards while predicting that the current expansion, which marks its eight-year anniversary this month and is the third longest of the post-World War II area, should continue its...

Reverse Mortgage Primer; LO Jobs and Products

Posted Jun 20th, 1:28 pm
“People who don’t give up attract other people’s attention.” As do people whose humor is stuck in 4th grade – like mine usually is. For example . Reverse Mortgages - Attracting Forward Lenders Given that 10,000 people a day are turning 62 (the minimum age to take out a...

MBS Day Ahead: Still Fighting to Hold The Range

Posted Jun 20th, 1:08 pm
The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among traders (if there are any). So far, those biases are hard to detect. Most options are being left open . Yields have broken back above the 2.17% pivot...

MBS RECAP: Fed’s Dudley Smacks Down Bond Bulls

Posted Jun 19th, 9:06 pm
Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially smacked down some of the recent low-rate momentum. Here are the newswires in question, with each followed by a bit analysis: "VERY...

Mortgage Rates Fairly Steady to Begin Week

Posted Jun 19th, 8:17 pm
Mortgage rates were mostly flat again today, despite bond market weakness (lower bond prices generally mean higher rates). Between MBS (the mortgage-backed-securities that underlie mortgage rate movement) and US Treasuries (the risk-free benchmark for all US debt/bonds), the latter fared worse. In...

Tear-Downs Accounted for 10% of 2016 Housing Starts

Posted Jun 19th, 2:58 pm
In some areas, they are called "scrape-offs," but the usual term is tear-down ; demolishing an existing home to build a new one in its place. Tear-downs, not to be confused with in-fill building where a house is erected on a vacant lot in a developed neighborhood, are often just a matter of...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still in Limbo, Despite Recent Victories

Posted Jun 19th, 1:40 pm
The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a potential bounce that took shape after last week's Fed announcement. That strength helped build the sense that bond markets were staging or...

Upcoming Events; M&A Discussion; Jobs and Housing Driving Rates?

Posted Jun 19th, 12:59 pm
Winston Churchill said that, “If the present tries to sit in judgement on the past, it will lose the future.” No argument there in mortgage banking. Upcoming events Finastra, formerly D+H, will be hosting a joint, complimentary webinar on June 29th at 1PM CT with Gartner's Craig Focardi...

MBS RECAP: Negative Housing Sets Positive Tone for Bonds

Posted Jun 16th, 9:04 pm
Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place since Wednesday's FOMC events. The weakness probably wouldn't have erased Wednesday's gains. The bigger-picture rally wouldn't have even...

Mortgage Rates Holding Most of Their Recent Gains

Posted Jun 16th, 8:37 pm
Mortgage rates were flat today, after weaker-than-expected construction data prompted a positive bounce for bond markets. In general, bonds (which dictate mortgage rates) improve when economic data is weaker. Before this morning's data, rates were at risk of coming out slightly higher compared to...