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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Ready to Move Either Direction After The Fed

Posted Sep 20th, 12:33 pm
Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a little too well. As of yesterday afternoon, 8 out of the last 8 business days saw 10yr yields close at higher levels than they opened. Low yields of...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Reaffirm The September Correction

Posted Sep 19th, 9:33 pm
While MBS managed to remain 1 tick in positive territory today, Treasury yields were higher on the day and the overall mood in bond markets managed to remain downbeat for yet another day. For all intents and purposes, the driving force was simply ongoing "corrective" momentum from the same...

Rates Steady Near Recent Highs Ahead of Fed

Posted Sep 19th, 8:36 pm
Mortgage rates remained unchanged today, on average. This keeps them in line with their highest levels in more than a month, though admittedly, there hasn't been much upward movement since the sharpest leg of the spike ended last Wednesday. Conventional 30yr fixed rates in the "high 3's" remain...

Fraud Risk Continues Upward Trend

Posted Sep 19th, 5:42 pm
Jumbo refinances led the way as mortgage fraud risk posted another gain in the second quarter of 2017. CoreLogic reports that overall risk, as measured by its Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index, was up 16.9 percent from the second quarter of 2016. The company estimates 13,404 mortgage...

Building Permits Regain Footing, Housing Starts Still Struggling

Posted Sep 19th, 2:03 pm
Residential construction outcomes in August were mixed, with permitting enjoying a strong comeback after more than a 4 percent downturn in July, but housing starts continuing to slide. Residential completions were also down substantially, which was probably weather related. The U.S. Census Bureau...

FHA, VA Updates; Ginnie Mae Overview

Posted Sep 19th, 1:15 pm
Ginnie, FHA and VA News Lender updates regarding Texas and Florida are quieting down slightly, so let's play some catch up on government programs. Ginnie Mae will consider potentially misleading marketing practices involving U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs-backed lenders. Acknowledging concerns...

MBS Day Ahead: Pirate Talk Could Be Our Best Option

Posted Sep 19th, 12:54 pm
Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world. Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate Day, so these first two sentences will likely be the extent of the allusion, although a phrase or two may slip into today's MBS Huddle video (if...

MBS RECAP: Weaker Start With No Major Scapegoats

Posted Sep 18th, 8:49 pm
Bonds got off to a weaker start on this Fed week, and there weren't any convenient scapegoats in sight. That said, there were a few caveats. Most notable, it was the 2nd lowest volume day of the year for Treasuries, and that's an environment that allows a smaller trading imbalance to have...

Mortgage Rates Continue Pushing Recent Highs

Posted Sep 18th, 7:55 pm
Mortgage rates resumed their recent uptrend today, after taking a quick break to end the week last Friday. The result is another push up to the highest levels in just over 3 weeks. The average scenario is being quoted rates that are about an eighth of a point higher compared to the lows seen in...

Student Debt Undermining Millennial Homeownership

Posted Sep 18th, 4:21 pm
A new study is providing more evidence that student debt is disrupting the lifecycle of the housing market. The survey, conducted jointly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the non-profit American Student Assistance (ASA), found that an overwhelming majority of millennials with...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Tune Out Competing Voices to End Flat

Posted Sep 15th, 9:09 pm
Between the overnight session and domestic trading hours, the following voices tried to get inside the head of bond markets: A North Korean missile launch asked bonds to rally from "safe haven" demand. They sorta did at first. Hawkish comments from a British central banker asked global...

Mortgage Rates Stabilize Ahead of Next Week’s Big Fed Announcement

Posted Sep 15th, 8:41 pm
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower on average today, confirming the end of a somewhat abrupt correction from last week's 2017 lows. In other words, rates rose quickly during the first days of the week and spent the last 3 days leveling off. To put "abrupt" in context and reiterate...

CFPB – “Regulation by Enforcement,” or Business as Usual?

Posted Sep 15th, 3:11 pm
The Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPB) does not provide guidance to the financial institutions it regulates. Instead it has evolved into a regime of "regulation by enforcement." At least that is the conclusion of a white paper written for the Mortgage Bankers Association by its counsel at...

Wealth of Training and Webinar Events; Austria’s 100-year Bond

Posted Sep 15th, 1:25 pm
Florida is sometimes called, “God’s waiting room.” The area, tragically, has seen its share of destruction & death this month, but the airports are back up and running. “In the old days,” one would go to the airport to fly. And only to fly. Nowadays, there’s...

MBS Day Ahead: What’s All This Then?!

Posted Sep 15th, 1:13 pm
Granted, the headline of today's commentary will be lost on those who aren't reasonably well-versed in Monty Python, but it was worth the risk to entertain the other 3 of you. The important part is that the phrase can be traced back to "something British" because much of the...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Close GREEN After 3 Rough Days

Posted Sep 14th, 9:10 pm
We've been steadfast in characterizing this week's sell-off as a "correction" to the strong rally that preceded it. One might have argued that the risk-aversion trade at the end of last week was the last straw , pushing yields all the way down to 2.016% and setting us up for an...

Mortgage Rates at 3-Week Highs

Posted Sep 14th, 6:51 pm
Mortgage rates moved higher today, despite resilience in underlying bond markets. If you were to ask bonds, they'd vote for rates remaining flat--well, sort of. There is a timing issue that I brought to your attention yesterday where mortgage lenders had yet to adjust for yesterday afternoon's bond...

Goldman Raises Odds of Another Fed Rate Hike This Year

Posted Sep 14th, 6:37 pm
Goldman Sachs economists said the odds for a third rate hike this year rose to 60 percent from 55 percent, after a significant firming in core inflation. August CPI rose 0.4 percent and core, excluding fuel and food, rose 0.248 percent, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Goldman had expected...

Jumbo Product, Lender Tax Credits; Disaster Updates

Posted Sep 14th, 1:21 pm
Disaster-related news continues to be front-and-center for obvious reasons. HUD announced it will speed federal disaster assistance to the State of Florida and provide support to homeowners and low-income renters forced from their homes due to Hurricane Irma. In addition, HUD is Granting immediate...

MBS Day Ahead: Time for CPI

Posted Sep 14th, 12:28 pm
Yesterday morning's chart is just as germane for today, perhaps more so. It shows how bonds have reacted to CPI data over the past few months. Although not every instance is a perfect argument for its relevance, it's safe to say that there's no other economic report with as much...